Astronomically unlikely. Structurally, it is a very large storm with worse press.
Fictional scenario · real preparedness list
Nobody prepares for an impact, and that is entirely reasonable. What people do prepare for is dust in the air, no power, damaged buildings and shops that are closed — which is the same list as an earthquake or a severe storm.
So read this as the dramatic route into ordinary shelter-in-place preparation, and enjoy the fact that ticking these off makes a bad Tuesday considerably easier.
Air and shelter
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Dust first, then keeping the weather out.
Dust masks
Smoke, ash and the dust of a damaged building are all things you want to keep out of your lungs, and improvised cloth does very little.
Why you need it. Smoke, ash and the dust of a damaged building are all things you want to keep out of your lungs, and improvised cloth does very little.
What to look for. FFP2/N95 respirators that seal against your face, kept flat and dry. A handful is enough; they are single-use once genuinely dirty.
Tarpaulin
A sheet of waterproof material covers a damaged roof, keeps belongings dry, becomes shade, or becomes shelter. Few things are this flexible.
Why you need it. A sheet of waterproof material covers a damaged roof, keeps belongings dry, becomes shade, or becomes shelter. Few things are this flexible.
What to look for. A reinforced tarp with eyelets, around 3 x 4 m, plus a length of paracord to tie it with.
Duct tape
Broken windows, split bags, cracked pipes and taped-up boxes. It is the least glamorous and most reused thing in any kit.
Why you need it. Broken windows, split bags, cracked pipes and taped-up boxes. It is the least glamorous and most reused thing in any kit.
What to look for. One good-quality wide roll — cheap tape peels off exactly when the repair matters.
Sturdy boots
Anything that damages a building leaves the floor covered in things you should not walk on in trainers. Boots by the bed is a habit, not a purchase.
Why you need it. Anything that damages a building leaves the floor covered in things you should not walk on in trainers. Boots by the bed is a habit, not a purchase.
What to look for. Closed, thick-soled boots you can put on in the dark, ideally with ankle support. Keep socks tucked inside them.
Work gloves
Broken glass, splintered wood and hot metal are the ordinary hazards of any clean-up, and hands are what you need working for everything else.
Why you need it. Broken glass, splintered wood and hot metal are the ordinary hazards of any clean-up, and hands are what you need working for everything else.
What to look for. Tough leather or coated gloves that fit properly. Cheap thin gloves tear on the first sharp edge, which is the edge that mattered.
Supplies
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Two weeks is the sensible answer here.
Stored drinking water
Water is the first thing to run short and the hardest to improvise. Three litres per person per day covers drinking and basic cooking, and having it already in the house means you never join the queue for it.
Why you need it. Water is the first thing to run short and the hardest to improvise. Three litres per person per day covers drinking and basic cooking, and having it already in the house means you never join the queue for it.
What to look for. Sealed bottles or food-grade containers holding three days' worth per person, kept somewhere cool and dark. Write the date on them and swap the stock out twice a year.
Water filter
If the tap runs but the supply is no longer trusted, a filter turns questionable water into water you can drink without boiling fuel you may not have.
Why you need it. If the tap runs but the supply is no longer trusted, a filter turns questionable water into water you can drink without boiling fuel you may not have.
What to look for. A gravity or squeeze filter rated for bacteria and protozoa, with a spare cartridge. Hollow-fibre filters are compact; ceramic ones are slower but very hard to break.
Shelf-stable food
Three days of food that needs no fridge and little or no cooking removes the pressure to shop during exactly the week everyone else is shopping.
Why you need it. Three days of food that needs no fridge and little or no cooking removes the pressure to shop during exactly the week everyone else is shopping.
What to look for. Tins, dried pasta, rice, nut butter and long-life milk you actually like eating, so the stock quietly rotates through normal meals instead of expiring in a cupboard.
Manual can opener
A cupboard of tins and no way into them is the most avoidable failure on this list, and electric openers are useless the moment the power goes.
Why you need it. A cupboard of tins and no way into them is the most avoidable failure on this list, and electric openers are useless the moment the power goes.
What to look for. A simple metal opener with a comfortable handle. Keep it in the same place as the emergency food, not in the general kitchen drawer where it wanders off.
Off-grid cooker
Hot food and hot drinks change morale faster than anything else you can carry, and they stop being possible the moment the hob has no gas or power.
Why you need it. Hot food and hot drinks change morale faster than anything else you can carry, and they stop being possible the moment the hob has no gas or power.
What to look for. A single-burner gas or spirit stove with two spare canisters, used outdoors or in real ventilation. Test it once before you need it rather than reading the instructions by torchlight.
The long quiet
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Light, news, health and each other.
Headlamp
Hands-free light for a pre-dawn start, an unexpected late finish, or finding anything at all inside a tent.
Why you need it. Hands-free light for a pre-dawn start, an unexpected late finish, or finding anything at all inside a tent.
What to look for. A small lamp with a low mode for camp and a bright mode for walking, plus spare batteries or a charged battery pack.
Battery or wind-up radio
When the mobile network is congested or down, local radio is still telling you which roads are closed and where to go. It is the one information source that does not depend on your phone.
Why you need it. When the mobile network is congested or down, local radio is still telling you which roads are closed and where to go. It is the one information source that does not depend on your phone.
What to look for. A wind-up or battery radio with FM and, ideally, weather or emergency bands. A model that also charges a phone earns its shelf space.
First aid kit
Blisters, grazes and headaches are the everyday injuries, and all of them are far more manageable with a small kit in the bag.
Why you need it. Blisters, grazes and headaches are the everyday injuries, and all of them are far more manageable with a small kit in the bag.
What to look for. Blister plasters, adhesive dressings, antiseptic wipes, painkillers and a bandage. Restock it after every trip rather than before the next one.
Medication buffer
For anyone on regular medication this is the most important item here, and it is the one that takes planning rather than shopping.
Why you need it. For anyone on regular medication this is the most important item here, and it is the one that takes planning rather than shopping.
What to look for. A few extra days of any prescription, arranged with your pharmacy in advance, plus a written list of doses in your document pack.
Written household plan
The part people skip and later wish they had not: who collects whom, where you meet if you cannot get home, and which out-of-area contact everyone calls.
Why you need it. The part people skip and later wish they had not: who collects whom, where you meet if you cannot get home, and which out-of-area contact everyone calls.
What to look for. One page, printed, in every bag and on the fridge. Agree it out loud with everyone, including the children, and revisit it once a year.
One good manual
Every plan eventually meets a problem you did not plan for. A single practical reference — first aid, repairs, food safety — is the item that keeps working when the internet does not.
Why you need it. Every plan eventually meets a problem you did not plan for. A single practical reference — first aid, repairs, food safety — is the item that keeps working when the internet does not.
What to look for. A printed first aid or general preparedness handbook, kept with the kit and read once while it is still a calm afternoon.